4 Jul · 12:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
YK
🇺🇦Yaroslav Kovshun
ELO 1573
FormLWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kovshun
AL
🇺🇦Arsenii Lobanov
ELO 1535
FormLLLWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Kovshun
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H3-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.