4 Jul · 15:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OH
🇺🇦Orest Hura
ELO 1500
FormWWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Hura
YS
🇺🇦Yurii Shmyndra
ELO 1485
FormWLWWW
52%
48%
🌟Shmyndra stays under total as underdog 68% (25)
Fair odds · Hura
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.