4 Jul · 13:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VM
🇺🇦Vitalii Mukhin
ELO 1417
FormWLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Mukhin
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Ponomarenko
ELO 1385
FormLWWLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Mukhin
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 75% · 1.33· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H12-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.