4 Jul · 18:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RL
🇺🇦Ruslan Lazebny
ELO 1505
FormLWLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Lazebny
OM
🇺🇦Oleksii Mitla
ELO 1420
FormLLLLL
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Mitla🌟Mitla covers set handicap as underdog 72% (25)
Fair odds · Lazebny
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 65% · 1.53· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+85
H2H25-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+85)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (25-11)