4 Jul · 11:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KJ
🇺🇦Karel Jirousek
ELO 1475
FormLWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Vorel
MV
🇺🇦Martin Vorel
ELO 1510
FormWLWWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jirousek🌟Jirousek covers set handicap as underdog 75% (12)
Fair odds · Vorel
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H12-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.