4 Jul · 14:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SA
🇺🇦Serhii Aristarkhov
ELO 1654
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Hubenko
MH
🇺🇦Maksym Hubenko
ELO 1659
FormLWWLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Aristarkhov🌟Aristarkhov covers set handicap as underdog 69% (13)
Fair odds · Hubenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H19-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.