5 Jul · 08:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
NK
🇺🇦Nazar Kovalchuk
ELO 1504
FormLWLWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Kovalchuk
AS
🇺🇦Anton Shypilov
ELO 1432
FormWLLWL
58%
42%
🔥 Underdog lean · Shypilov🌟Kovalchuk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (35)
Fair odds · Kovalchuk
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+72
H2H22-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+72)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (22-19)