5 Jul · 08:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1511
FormLWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Makara
TL
🇺🇦Tomas Liska
ELO 1482
FormWWLWL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Liska🌟Makara rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (15)
Fair odds · Makara
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H42-40
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.