5 Jul · 07:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VD
🇺🇦Volodymyr Dobrovolskyi
ELO 1496
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lutsyshyn
OL
🇺🇦Oleh Lutsyshyn
ELO 1528
FormLWLLW
47%
53%
🌟Dobrovolskyi stays under total as underdog 70% (27)
Fair odds · Lutsyshyn
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H8-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.