5 Jul · 08:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SA
🇺🇦Serhii Aristarkhov
ELO 1665
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Aristarkhov
MH
🇺🇦Maksym Hubenko
ELO 1657
FormWLWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Aristarkhov
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H20-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.