5 Jul · 14:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SS
🇺🇦Serhii Semenets
ELO 1389
FormWWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Semenets
MT
🇺🇦Maksym Tkalich
ELO 1358
FormLLLLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Semenets
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.