5 Jul · 11:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇺🇦Michal Snizek
ELO 1485
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Snizek
JJ
🇺🇦Jakub Dufek Jnr
ELO 1476
FormWWLLW
51%
49%
🌟Jnr stays under total as underdog 67% (12)
Fair odds · Snizek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H5-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.