5 Jul · 11:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RM
🇺🇦Roman Merkl
ELO 1490
FormWLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Abraham
PA
🇺🇦Petr Abraham
ELO 1518
FormLLWWW
47%
53%
🌟Merkl covers set handicap as underdog 77% (22)
Fair odds · Abraham
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H5-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.