5 Jul · 10:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AK
🇺🇦Andrii Kotyk
ELO 1474
FormWLWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Kotyk
OM
🇺🇦Oleksii Mitla
ELO 1409
FormWWLLL
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Mitla🌟Kotyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 25% (20)
Fair odds · Kotyk
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+65
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+65)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)