5 Jul · 09:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
YB
🇺🇦Yurii Bondarenko
ELO 1520
FormLWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Bondarenko
OV
🇺🇦Oleg Varlamov
ELO 1495
FormLWWWW
53%
47%
🌟Varlamov covers set handicap as underdog 76% (17)
Fair odds · Bondarenko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.