5 Jul · 15:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
EP
🇺🇦Evgeniy Pismenniy
ELO 1438
FormLLLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Pismenniy
RR
🇺🇦Roman Reznychenko
ELO 1389
FormLWLWL
55%
45%
🌟Reznychenko goes over total as underdog 68% (22)
Fair odds · Pismenniy
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H78-74
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+49)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (78-74)