5 Jul · 12:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DN
🇺🇦Daniil Novakov
ELO 1418
FormLWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kondratenko
VK
🇺🇦Vasily Kondratenko
ELO 1449
FormWLWLL
47%
53%
🌟Kondratenko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (29)
Fair odds · Kondratenko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.