5 Jul · 12:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RM
🇺🇦Roman Merkl
ELO 1490
FormWLLWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Merkl
FK
🇺🇦Filip Kubos
ELO 1412
FormLWLLL
58%
42%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kubos🌟Merkl rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (18)
Fair odds · Merkl
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+78
H2H7-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-5)