5 Jul · 13:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
VM
🇺🇦Vitalii Mukhin
ELO 1431
FormWWLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Mukhin
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Ponomarenko
ELO 1369
FormLWLLL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Mukhin
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 75% · 1.33· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+62
H2H13-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-5)