5 Jul · 15:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SS
🇺🇦Sergii Skhabitskiy
ELO 1526
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Skhabitskiy
MS
🇺🇦Maksym Stetsenko
ELO 1515
FormLLWWL
51%
49%
🌟Stetsenko stays under total as underdog 65% (20)
Fair odds · Skhabitskiy
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.