5 Jul · 11:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
NK
🇺🇦Nazar Kovalchuk
ELO 1504
FormLWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kovalchuk
OH
🇺🇦Orest Hura
ELO 1481
FormLLLWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hura🌟Kovalchuk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (35)
Fair odds · Kovalchuk
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H7-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.