5 Jul · 09:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VD
🇺🇦Volodymyr Dobrovolskyi
ELO 1496
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kozoriz
DK
🇺🇦Denys Kozoriz
ELO 1504
FormLLWWW
49%
51%
🌟Dobrovolskyi stays under total as underdog 70% (27)
Fair odds · Kozoriz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 27% · 3.72· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~70 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H9-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.