5 Jul · 14:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DN
🇺🇦Daniil Novakov
ELO 1418
FormLWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Baranskyi
SB
🇺🇦Serhii Baranskyi
ELO 1455
FormWWWWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Baranskyi
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.