5 Jul · 13:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OH
🇺🇦Orest Hura
ELO 1481
FormLLLWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Hura
OM
🇺🇦Oleksii Mitla
ELO 1409
FormWWLLL
58%
42%
🔥 Underdog lean · Mitla🌟Mitla covers set handicap as underdog 72% (25)
Fair odds · Hura
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+72
H2H19-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+72)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (19-15)