5 Jul · 10:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VD
🇺🇦Volodymyr Dobrovolskyi
ELO 1496
FormWLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kvak
IK
🇺🇦Ihor Kvak
ELO 1535
FormWWWWL
46%
54%
🌟Dobrovolskyi stays under total as underdog 70% (27)
Fair odds · Kvak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~72 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.