5 Jul · 12:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Ponomarenko
ELO 1369
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Semenets
SS
🇺🇦Serhii Semenets
ELO 1389
FormWWWWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Semenets
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H12-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.