5 Jul · 15:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FS
🇺🇦Frantisek Schmidtmayer
ELO 1493
FormLLWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Schmidtmayer
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Plyska
ELO 1490
FormWLLLL
50%
50%
🌟Plyska covers set handicap as underdog 100% (16)
Fair odds · Schmidtmayer
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.