5 Jul · 13:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JM
🇺🇦Jakub Mejzlik
ELO 1492
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mejzlik
MS
🇺🇦Michal Snizek
ELO 1485
FormWWWWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Mejzlik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H0-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.