5 Jul · 12:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
NK
🇺🇦Nazar Kovalchuk
ELO 1504
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kovalchuk
AK
🇺🇦Andrii Kotyk
ELO 1474
FormWLWWW
53%
47%
🌟Kotyk stays under total as underdog 68% (34)
Fair odds · Kovalchuk
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H1-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.