5 Jul · 11:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AK
🇺🇦Andrii Kotyk
ELO 1474
FormWLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Shmyndra
YS
🇺🇦Yurii Shmyndra
ELO 1489
FormLLWWW
48%
52%
🌟Kotyk stays under total as underdog 68% (34)
Fair odds · Shmyndra
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.