6 Jul · 14:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AD
🇺🇦Andrii Derevianko
ELO 1570
FormWLWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Derevianko
OS
🇺🇦Oleksandr Strutinskiy
ELO 1509
FormLWLLL
56%
44%
🌟Strutinskiy rarely covers set handicap as underdog 35% (20)
Fair odds · Derevianko
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+61
H2H38-45
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+61)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)