6 Jul · 12:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IE
🇺🇦Ihor Emets
ELO 1573
FormWWLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Troyan
AT
🇺🇦Andrey Troyan
ELO 1575
FormLWWWW
50%
50%
🌟Emets stays under total as underdog 63% (19)
Fair odds · Troyan
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 73% · 1.38· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H2-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.