6 Jul · 09:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AR
🇺🇦Andrii Regush
ELO 1531
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Regush
VK
🇺🇦Vladyslav Kovalchuk
ELO 1522
FormLLLWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Regush
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 73% · 1.38· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.