7 Jul · 03:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1482
FormWWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Lazebny
RL
🇺🇦Ruslan Lazebny
ELO 1497
FormLWWLL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Smyrnov🌟Smyrnov covers set handicap as underdog 72% (43)
Fair odds · Lazebny
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H25-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.