6 Jul · 15:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AN
🇺🇦Anatolii Nazarov
ELO 1576
FormWLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Nazarov
AL
🇺🇦Anatolii Lievshin
ELO 1574
FormLWLLL
50%
50%
🌟Lievshin goes over total as underdog 69% (13)
Fair odds · Nazarov
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.