6 Jul · 18:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AD
🇺🇦Andrii Derevianko
ELO 1570
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Nazarov
AN
🇺🇦Anatolii Nazarov
ELO 1576
FormWLWLW
49%
51%
🌟Derevianko covers set handicap as underdog 66% (47)
Fair odds · Nazarov
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H36-38
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.