6 Jul · 22:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
VV
🇺🇦Valerii Vlasenko
ELO 1400
FormWLWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Smyrnov
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1482
FormWWLLW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Smyrnov
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+82
H2H43-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+82)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (43-17)