7 Jul · 00:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
YT
🇺🇦Yaroslav Tebenko
ELO 1519
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Tebenko
YP
🇺🇦Yurii Parahailo
ELO 1512
FormWWLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Tebenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H13-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.