6 Jul · 07:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VK
🇺🇦Valerii Kolesnykov
ELO 1512
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Yakimenko
SY
🇺🇦Stefan Yakimenko
ELO 1520
FormLWWWL
49%
51%
🌟Kolesnykov covers set handicap as underdog 77% (22)
Fair odds · Yakimenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H1-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.