6 Jul · 10:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
VK
🇺🇦Valerii Kolesnykov
ELO 1512
FormLWLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Troyan
AT
🇺🇦Andrey Troyan
ELO 1575
FormLWWWW
43%
57%
🌟Kolesnykov covers set handicap as underdog 77% (22)
Fair odds · Troyan
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+63
H2H28-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (28-11)