6 Jul · 15:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AD
🇺🇦Andrii Derevianko
ELO 1570
FormWLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Derevianko
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Kuzyshyn
ELO 1543
FormLLWWW
53%
47%
🌟Kuzyshyn covers set handicap as underdog 69% (16)
Fair odds · Derevianko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H8-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.