7 Jul · 02:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RG
🇺🇦Roman Gnoevoy
ELO 1536
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Derevynskyi
DD
🇺🇦Dmytro Derevynskyi
ELO 1542
FormLWLWW
49%
51%
🌟Gnoevoy covers set handicap as underdog 65% (23)
Fair odds · Derevynskyi
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H36-37
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.