6 Jul · 21:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VC
🇺🇦Valentyn Chumak
ELO 1516
FormLLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lifanov
AL
🇺🇦Andrii Lifanov
ELO 1543
FormLWLLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chumak🌟Chumak covers set handicap as underdog 81% (21)
Fair odds · Lifanov
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H14-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.