6 Jul · 18:25 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
IK
🇺🇦Ivan Kozachuk
ELO 1526
FormLLLLL
67%Win chancemodel fair 1.49Pesternikov
DP
🇺🇦Denys Pesternikov
ELO 1688
FormLWWWL
33%
67%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kozachuk🌟Kozachuk stays under total as underdog 70% (30)
Fair odds · Pesternikov
Model 67% · 1.49vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 48%Total ~74 pts
1-3
25%
0-3
23%
2-3
18%
3-2
13%
3-1
12%
Elo Gap+162
H2H97-88
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+162)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (97-88)