7 Jul · 01:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ON
🇺🇦Oleh Napirko
ELO 1485
FormLWWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Napirko
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1482
FormWWLLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Smyrnov🌟Smyrnov covers set handicap as underdog 72% (43)
Fair odds · Napirko
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H23-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.