6 Jul · 13:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AK
🇺🇦Andrii Kurtenko
ELO 1503
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stetsenko
MS
🇺🇦Maksym Stetsenko
ELO 1516
FormLWWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Stetsenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 37% · 2.67· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H3-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.