6 Jul · 16:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
YR
🇺🇦Yehor Riadynskyi
ELO 1616
FormWWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Riadynskyi
AN
🇺🇦Anatolii Nazarov
ELO 1576
FormWLWLW
54%
46%
🌟Nazarov covers set handicap as underdog 62% (16)
Fair odds · Riadynskyi
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H52-48
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.