6 Jul · 20:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AD
🇺🇦Andrii Derevianko
ELO 1570
FormWLWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Riadynskyi
YR
🇺🇦Yehor Riadynskyi
ELO 1616
FormWWLLL
45%
55%
🌟Derevianko covers set handicap as underdog 66% (47)
Fair odds · Riadynskyi
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H56-23
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+46)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (56-23)