6 Jul · 12:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FS
🇺🇦Frantisek Schmidtmayer
ELO 1496
FormWLLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Cizek
MC
🇺🇦Marek Cizek
ELO 1500
FormLWWWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Cizek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H9-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.