6 Jul · 11:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FS
🇺🇦Frantisek Schmidtmayer
ELO 1496
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Schmidtmayer
VH
🇺🇦Vit Herrmann
ELO 1482
FormLWWWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Schmidtmayer
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H5-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.